Bolivia declared a national emergency over drought and El Niño-related weather risks.
Why it matters: The emergency puts water security, food production, rural incomes and public resources under pressure. NOAA and WMO forecasts point to elevated weather risks through 2027.
- President Rodrigo Paz signed the emergency decree on October 31, 2026.
- Government data counted 114,048 affected or directly impacted families across 63 municipalities and six departments.
- The report counted 167,511 affected hectares, 60,106 hectares lost and 75,013 head of livestock lost.
- <a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml">NOAA's October-December 2026 forecast gave an 83% probability of strong-to-very-strong El Niño conditions.</a>
President Rodrigo Paz signed Supreme Decree No. 5759 on October 31, declaring a national emergency over drought and risks linked to the 2026-2027 El Niño event.
The decree lists drought, frost, hail, forest fires, floods, flash floods and river overflows as threats to lives, health and livelihoods. It allows national, departmental and municipal authorities to coordinate response measures and use emergency and institutional resources - meaning they can organize assistance and deploy existing public capabilities.
Defense Minister Ernesto Justiniano said drought affected 114,048 families in 63 municipalities across six of Bolivia's nine departments between June 1 and October 29, according to government statistics. The total includes 78,217 families classified as affected and 35,831 classified as victims or directly impacted.
The same report counted 1,486 affected communities, 167,511 affected hectares, 60,106 hectares lost and 75,013 head of livestock lost. The drought zones include parts of the Altiplano, valleys and Chaco, while the government anticipates flooding and river overflows elsewhere.
The decree's stated objectives include protecting agricultural production, food security, domestic supplies and rural households. As an analysis, the emergency response could also increase demand for water deliveries, farm support and disaster-response resources.
NOAA's forecast for October-December 2026 gave an 83% probability of strong-to-very-strong El Niño conditions. The supplied NOAA material does not state an issuance date. The World Meteorological Organization outlook, also without a publication date in the supplied materials, expects heightened flood, drought and extreme-heat risks into 2027.
By the numbers
- 83% - NOAA's probability of strong-to-very-strong El Niño conditions during October-December 2026, <a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml">according to its forecast</a>
- 114,048 - families affected or directly impacted between June 1 and October 29, according to <a href="https://www.boliviatv.bo/principal/nota.php?noticia=2529eb9f0fc62fbb4744395a6111063e">Bolivian government statistics</a>
- 75,013 - head of livestock reported lost in the same government report
Yes, but: The supplied materials do not include an independent damage assessment or fiscal analysis. This review also found no stated emergency funding amount or budget source, so the potential effect on public spending remains uncertain.
What's next: NOAA's outlook covers October-December 2026. The WMO outlook points to heightened flood, drought and extreme-heat risks into 2027.