Mahmood is expected to respond to proposals for 10- and 15-year settlement routes.
Why it matters: Longer routes to indefinite leave to remain (ILR) could affect recruitment, retention and workforce planning in health care, social care and other sectors that rely on migrant workers. The response could also clarify how the proposals would affect people already on the current five-year route.
- The Home Office consultation, published in November 2025, proposes raising the standard ILR qualifying period from five years to 10.
- Some Skilled Worker roles requiring qualifications below Regulated Qualifications Framework Level 6 could face a 15-year qualifying period.
- The Home Office estimates that 1.6 million people could settle between 2026 and 2030 under the current system.
- The Guardian reported on November 1, 2026, that Mahmood's response is expected during the week beginning November 2, 2026.
The UK government is consulting on an earned-settlement model that would replace the standard five-year route to indefinite leave to remain (ILR), also known as settlement. The Home Office consultation published in November 2025 proposes a 10-year default qualifying period.
Some Skilled Worker migrants in roles requiring qualifications below Regulated Qualifications Framework Level 6 could face a 15-year qualifying period. Level 6 is a qualification benchmark; the proposal should not be treated as a blanket definition of every job below degree level.
Applicants could potentially shorten the wait by meeting contribution and integration requirements, including earnings, National Insurance contributions, English-language proficiency, community contribution and compliance with the law. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said in the government's settlement proposals that "The starting point for settlement will move from 5 years to 10."
The Home Office document estimates that about 1.6 million people could settle between 2026 and 2030 under the current system. It also estimates that the 616,000 people granted Health and Care entry-clearance visas between 2022 and 2024 could produce about 384,000 settlement applications between 2027 and 2029 under historic patterns.
The document does not establish whether the 384,000 applications are included in the wider 1.6 million estimate, so the figures cannot be directly compared. It also does not specify finalized transitional protections for people already on the five-year route or whether dependants are included in the projection.
The Guardian reported on November 1, 2026, that Mahmood is expected to present the response during the week beginning November 2. The report also described opposition from parliamentarians and sector organizations, including a warning that "International workers are essential to maintaining current levels of care."
By the numbers
- 10 years - proposed standard qualifying period for settlement, up from five
- 15 years - proposed qualifying period for some Skilled Worker roles below RQF Level 6
- 1.6 million - Home Office estimate of people who could settle between 2026 and 2030 under the current system
Yes, but: The proposals are not yet final. The Home Office document leaves transitional protections, the treatment of dependants and the relationship between its 384,000 and 1.6 million estimates unresolved.
What's next: Mahmood's response is expected during the week beginning November 2, 2026. Final changes would then need to be set out through the Immigration Rules process.